Here’s the full write up on each race.
OK, I know we just came off of 2008, and there were a lot of competitive races nationally, as well as in Florida. But, 10 is just a big number. I mean we’ve only got 25 seats in the House, so 10 of them being competitive is a huge deal. Don’t get too excited though, they aren’t all possible D pickups.
2nd (Tallahassee, etc.): Congressman Allen Boyd, a Blue Dog, is being primary challenged by Al Lawson, term-out state Senate leader. Lawson, no true progressive, will run to the Left of Boyd. My prediction: the challenge never really materializes, and Boyd keeps his seat.
8th (Orlando, etc.): Grayson beat Keller here in 2008. Since winning, Grayson has shown his true colors as an ‘aggressive’ progressive. Nothing wrong with that in my book, but will his voters find him out of sync with them? I think it’s less of a question about Grayson but more about who the Rs can put up against him.
10th (St. Petersburg, etc.) Will Bill Young ever retire?
12th (Lakeland, etc.) Adam Putnam is vacating to run for Ag Commissioner. Dennis Ross, former state Senator, is the defacto Republican nominee; Lori Edwards, Polk county Supervisor of Elections, is the prominent D in the race. Definitely will be a race to watch.
13th (Sarasota, etc.) What is Vern Buchanan doing? He’s talking about a Senate race; perhaps because the Ds will never let him just have the district. If he vacates, watch for a strong race in a tight district.
16th (Palm Beach County, etc.) Southern Political Report ranks this one. I’m not so sure it’s competitive. Tom Rooney will win again, but he will be challenged by a strong D. Just not sure the D will ever be able to take off.
17th (Miami, etc.) Who will replace K-Meek? Whoever wins this primary will be the new Rep.
22nd (Fort Lauderdale, etc.) This is another, ‘What will person X do?’ race. Ron Klein may get into the Senate race. Even if he doesn’t, he will never go unchallenged in this swingy district. But, if he runs for reelection, Klein should sail to victory again.
24th (Orlando, etc.) Kosmas, who just took her seat in January, will face a strong, but yet to be determined, Republican. Feeney had questionable morals, which inevitably led to his downfall. The national Rs will look to the 24th to run a strong campaign and reclaim the district.
25th (Miami, etc.): The 3 Miami area Ds who ran in 2008 never took off in their races like the national party expected. But, expect to see strong races again down in the Miami area. In the 25th, Joe Garcia will likely again challenge Mario Diaz Balart, but just ask Christine Jennings what happens to second time candidates.
So those are my thoughts. What are yours?
FL-10 — I can’t imagine that a formerly powerful chair like Bill Young is finding it fun to be in the minority for the foreseeable future — I’m hoping that 2010 is the time he will finally bail out (although he may be waiting until post-re-districting 2012 if he thinks that somehow will help the Republicans with drawing a map.)
FL-13 — Vern Buchanan is clearly waiting to see if Christ is going to run for Senate before making a decision about his future. Here’s hoping Vern runs and we recruit a strong Democratic candidate (Not Jennings or Schneider!)
FL-17 — a host a state Reps, state Senators and local officials will make for a very very crowded primary… Senator Frederica Wilson would probably be the favourite if she runs, but 68 may be a little old to start a freshmen term in congress (although others have done it). There is a good chance the district will send a Haitian-American to Congress with 2 strong perspective candidates (State Rep Yolly Roberson, State Rep Phillip Brutus – this would be a huge political step for the Haitian community..
FL 22 – Klein was less than totally impressive last time out (54% in a very strong Democratic year) — he needs to work his district harder to make it safe. Not sure a Senate run would be a good thing for him — but if it is, I imagine that there are a number of other local elected officials from both parties who would make a strong run for it.
FL 25 et al – I’d say there is a huge distinction between Joe Garcia and Christine Jennings — Jennings’ 3rd run (remember, she lost a primary to Jan Schneider once before) was tainted by the perception of her as a “sore loser” from the drawn out contest of the 2006 election… despite Buchanan’s many weaknesses, this made her a much harder sell in the district. Garcia won’t have that kind of baggage on his second time out. I think he is worth investing in for a second run.
I’d venture that the political future of FL 18, 21, and 25 depend heavily on events in Cuba and American Cuban policy… if loosening family travel and remittances happens over Republican opposition, it will help the Democratic brand considerably among Cuban-American voters. In the meantime, political events on the island could dramatically influence attitudes here. The changing attitudes of young Cuban voters, coupled with the growth of non-Cuban Latinos may mean change is possible.
You could also ask Eric Massa, Larry Kissell, and Mary Jo Kilroy.
I think the reputation of being a fighter is a good thing, even for people who don’t agree with you. If the national mood turns more conservative then Grayson would be in a better position than a more passive progressive. I think Alan Grayson is the most impressive new Congressman in the entire class of 2008. I could see him as a future Speaker, or even President.